{"id":86890,"date":"2026-10-12T04:35:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T00:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/?p=86890"},"modified":"2026-10-12T04:35:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T00:35:59","slug":"tramp-putin-sovd%c9%99l%c9%99sm%c9%99si-dogrudanmi-siyas%c9%99td%c9%99-%c9%99xlaq-yoxdur-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/?p=86890","title":{"rendered":"Tramp-Putin s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259si: Do\u011frudanm\u0131 siyas\u0259td\u0259 \u0259xlaq yoxdur?!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Odlar.media<\/strong><\/span> x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, professor Qulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259qdim etdiyi siyasi t\u0259hlild\u0259 AB\u015e Prezidenti Donald Tramp\u0131n Rusiya il\u0259 dizel yanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fc m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 etdiyi raz\u0131la\u015fma beyn\u0259lxalq siyas\u0259td\u0259 \u0259xlaq, strateji maraqlar v\u0259 siyasi m\u0259suliyy\u0259t kontekstind\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. M\u00fc\u0259llifin yana\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, bu add\u0131m t\u0259kc\u0259 enerji bazar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 iqtisadi q\u0259rar deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 Va\u015finqtonun Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259sin\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259ti, Moskvaya qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259tbiq olunan sanksiyalar\u0131n effektivliyi v\u0259 AB\u015e-nin beyn\u0259lxalq n\u00fcfuzu bax\u0131m\u0131ndan ciddi suallar do\u011furan siyasi se\u00e7imdir.
\nM\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin mahiyy\u0259ti ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, bir t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n Rusiya Ukraynaya qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259ni davam etdirir, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n is\u0259 onun enerji resurslar\u0131ndan \u0259ld\u0259 etdiyi g\u0259lirl\u0259r Kremlin maliyy\u0259 imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 qoruma\u011fa k\u00f6m\u0259k edir. Bel\u0259 bir \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 Rusiyadan yanacaq al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri yaln\u0131z iqtisadi fayda il\u0259 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u0259 bilm\u0259z. Burada \u0259sas sual budur: q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli enerji maraqlar\u0131 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rind\u0259n \u00fcst\u00fcn tutulmal\u0131d\u0131rm\u0131?
\nBeyn\u0259lxalq m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r \u00e7ox vaxt iqtisadi maraqlar\u0131, milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi v\u0259 siyasi prinsipl\u0259ri uzla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Lakin m\u00fcharib\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 bu se\u00e7im daha m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b xarakter al\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki enerji ticar\u0259ti adi kommersiya f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti olmaqla yana\u015f\u0131, m\u00fcharib\u0259 aparan d\u00f6vl\u0259tin b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 v\u0259 h\u0259rbi imkanlar\u0131na t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259n strateji amildir.
\nQulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259nqidi yana\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas\u0131n\u0131 da bu ziddiyy\u0259t t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Onun m\u00f6vqeyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Rusiya il\u0259 dizel raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 Moskvan\u0131n Ukraynaya qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n\u0131 davam etdirdiyi bir vaxtda Kremlin iqtisadi imkanlar\u0131na \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259k verilm\u0259si kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndiril\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nBurada m\u00fch\u00fcm bir m\u0259qam var: Rusiyadan enerji m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 avtomatik olaraq h\u0259min \u00f6lk\u0259nin m\u00fcharib\u0259 siyas\u0259tin\u0259 birba\u015fa siyasi d\u0259st\u0259k verm\u0259k niyy\u0259ti da\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcbut etmir. Bununla bel\u0259, bel\u0259 ticar\u0259tin yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 maliyy\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 sanksiyalar alt\u0131nda olan d\u00f6vl\u0259t\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tirdiyi halda, ciddi siyasi v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259rinin predmetin\u0259 \u00e7evrilir.
\nM\u0259hz buna g\u00f6r\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259ni yaln\u0131z dizelin qiym\u0259ti, t\u0259dar\u00fck h\u0259cmi v\u0259 bazar t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131 il\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmaq d\u00fczg\u00fcn olmazd\u0131. \u018fsas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 iqtisadi q\u0259rar\u0131n m\u00fcharib\u0259nin gedi\u015fin\u0259 v\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rin imkanlar\u0131na nec\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yidir.
\nM\u00fcharib\u0259nin \u00d6yr\u0259nilm\u0259si \u0130nstitutunun (ISW) t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Rusiya AB\u015e il\u0259 dizel raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcqabilind\u0259 Ukrayna m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 h\u0259r hans\u0131 g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ft\u0259 getm\u0259yib. \u018fg\u0259r raz\u0131la\u015fma \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri art\u0131rsa v\u0259 Moskva bunun qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda siyasi v\u0259 ya h\u0259rbi \u00f6hd\u0259lik g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u00fcrs\u0259, ortaya m\u00fch\u00fcm sual \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r: bu s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259nin strateji faydas\u0131 \u0259sas\u0259n hans\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259fin xeyrin\u0259dir?
\nEnerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri Rusiyan\u0131n d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin m\u00fch\u00fcm m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biridir. Neft v\u0259 neft m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n v\u0259saitl\u0259r m\u00fcxt\u0259lif b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n h\u0259rbi x\u0259rcl\u0259rin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sin\u0259 dolay\u0131 yolla imkan yarada bil\u0259r. D\u00f6vl\u0259t g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin \u00fcmumi h\u0259cmi artd\u0131qca h\u00f6kum\u0259tin resurslar\u0131 dig\u0259r istiqam\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 y\u00f6n\u0259ltm\u0259k imkanlar\u0131 da geni\u015fl\u0259nir.
\nBununla bel\u0259, Rusiyadan al\u0131nan h\u0259r bir yanacaq partiyas\u0131n\u0131n birba\u015fa Ukraynaya qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259rf olundu\u011funu iddia etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ayr\u0131ca s\u00fcbutlar laz\u0131md\u0131r. Daha d\u0259qiq ifad\u0259 ets\u0259k, bel\u0259 raz\u0131la\u015fma Rusiyan\u0131n \u00fcmumi maliyy\u0259 imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fccl\u0259ndir\u0259 v\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259nin davam etdirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00f6vcud resurslar\u0131n\u0131 qorumas\u0131na k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nBurada daha bir vacib amil m\u00f6vcuddur: Rusiyan\u0131n enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri yaln\u0131z sat\u0131\u015f h\u0259cmind\u0259n deyil, d\u00fcnya bazar\u0131ndak\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259n, t\u0259tbiq edil\u0259n sanksiyalardan, n\u0259qliyyat v\u0259 s\u0131\u011forta x\u0259rcl\u0259rind\u0259n, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n alternativ imkanlar\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r.
\nDem\u0259li, raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n real n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn onun h\u0259cmi, qiym\u0259t \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri, h\u00fcquqi \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259si v\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n m\u00f6vcud ixrac\u0131na n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259yi ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. M\u0259hz bu m\u0259lumatlar olmadan raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n iqtisadi v\u0259 h\u0259rbi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri bar\u0259d\u0259 q\u0259ti r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rl\u0259 dan\u0131\u015fmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil.
\nAB\u015e administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n bel\u0259 bir raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131 m\u00fch\u00fcm add\u0131m kimi t\u0259qdim etm\u0259si il\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq iqtisadi t\u0259hlil\u00e7il\u0259rin ona yana\u015fmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda f\u0259rq oldu\u011fu bildirilir. Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, The Guardian v\u0259 Axios kimi media qurumlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n materiallar\u0131nda raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n iqtisadi s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi, siyasi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259sin\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn t\u0259siri m\u00fczakir\u0259 olunur.
\nCNN-in sitat g\u0259tirdiyi Pickering Energy Partners \u015firk\u0259tinin r\u0259hb\u0259ri Den Pikerinqin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, bu add\u0131m m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n fayda ver\u0259 bils\u0259 d\u0259, qlobal dizel bazar\u0131nda \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259yi\u015fiklik yaratmaya bil\u0259r. Onun yana\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, b\u00f6y\u00fck r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rl\u0259 ifad\u0259 olunan t\u0259dar\u00fck h\u0259cml\u0259ri h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 bazarda eyni d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck t\u0259sir dem\u0259k deyil.
\nEnerji bazarlar\u0131 m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259b mexanizml\u0259rl\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yir. Yanaca\u011f\u0131n qiym\u0259ti yaln\u0131z bir \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n dig\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n olunmur. Qlobal t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klif, neft emal\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259ssis\u0259l\u0259rinin g\u00fcc\u00fc, logistika imkanlar\u0131, regional \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131qlar v\u0259 siyasi riskl\u0259r d\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
\nAssociated Press-in istinad etdiyi analitik Maykl Lin\u00e7 is\u0259 bel\u0259 bir raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n m\u00f6vcud yanacaq ax\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fdir\u0259, lakin \u00fcmumi bazar v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin\u0259 m\u0259hdud t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini vur\u011fulay\u0131r. Onun yana\u015fmas\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, AB\u015e Rusiyadan \u0259lav\u0259 dizel alarsa, haz\u0131rda h\u0259min m\u0259hsulu Rusiyadan \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259n b\u0259zi al\u0131c\u0131lar alternativ t\u0259chizat\u00e7\u0131lara \u00fcz tutmal\u0131 ola bil\u0259rl\u0259r. Bu halda bazarda yanaca\u011f\u0131n co\u011frafi istiqam\u0259ti d\u0259yi\u015fs\u0259 d\u0259, \u00fcmumi t\u0259klifd\u0259 ciddi art\u0131m yaranmaya bil\u0259r.
\nBu arqument raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n iqtisadi s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0259sas sual\u0131 ortaya qoyur: \u0259g\u0259r add\u0131m qlobal bazarda qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259\u00e7arpacaq d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 salmayacaqsa, onun siyasi v\u0259 geosiyasi riskl\u0259ri hans\u0131 real iqtisadi fayda il\u0259 \u0259sasland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r?
\n\u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, bunu d\u0259qiq m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcqavil\u0259nin \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri, t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn h\u0259cmi v\u0259 AB\u015e bazar\u0131na t\u0259siri bar\u0259d\u0259 konkret m\u0259lumatlar laz\u0131md\u0131r. Lakin iqtisadi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n olmas\u0131 siyasi q\u0259rar\u0131n \u0259sasland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 daha da vacib edir.
\nRusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259tbiq olunan sanksiyalar\u0131n \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rind\u0259n biri Moskvan\u0131n Ukraynaya qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259ni davam etdirm\u0259k imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmaqd\u0131r. Bu t\u0259dbirl\u0259r Rusiyan\u0131n maliyy\u0259, texnologiya, ticar\u0259t v\u0259 enerji sektorlar\u0131na m\u00fcxt\u0259lif formalarda t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
\nBel\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 enerji ticar\u0259tinin geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si v\u0259 ya sanksiyalar\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n istiqam\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 yum\u015fald\u0131lmas\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 q\u0259rarlar Q\u0259rbin \u00fcmumi strategiyas\u0131 bax\u0131m\u0131ndan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir.
\nThe Guardian-\u0131n t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n t\u0259hlilind\u0259 bu c\u00fcr raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n AB\u015e siyas\u0259tind\u0259 ciddi d\u0259yi\u015fiklik t\u0259siri yarada bil\u0259c\u0259yi v\u0259 Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tdir davam ed\u0259n Q\u0259rb t\u0259zyiqinin ard\u0131c\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair suallar do\u011furdu\u011fu vur\u011fulan\u0131r.
\nBurada problem yaln\u0131z Rusiyan\u0131n \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259si deyil. Dig\u0259r m\u00fch\u00fcm m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq ictimaiyy\u0259t\u0259 veril\u0259n siyasi mesajd\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r m\u00fcharib\u0259ni dayand\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259zyiq g\u00f6st\u0259rildiyi bir vaxtda Moskva il\u0259 enerji s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilirs\u0259, bu, Q\u0259rb \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin vahid strategiyas\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259l\u0259r yarada bil\u0259r.
\nDig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, h\u0259r bir enerji m\u00fcqavil\u0259sini avtomatik olaraq sanksiyalar\u0131n l\u0259\u011fvi v\u0259 ya z\u0259ifl\u0259dilm\u0259si kimi t\u0259qdim etm\u0259k d\u0259 d\u00fczg\u00fcn olmazd\u0131. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn konkret h\u00fcquqi mexanizml\u0259r, q\u00fcvv\u0259d\u0259 olan m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r v\u0259 raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n h\u0259min m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259siri ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.
\n\u018fsas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 budur ki, ist\u0259nil\u0259n iqtisadi raz\u0131la\u015fma Rusiyan\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fiklik yaratmaq m\u0259qs\u0259di da\u015f\u0131yan siyasi strategiya il\u0259 uzla\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fks halda, q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli iqtisadi qazanc uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli siyasi m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rl\u0259 ziddiyy\u0259t t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nUkrayna Prezidenti Volodimir Zelenski bel\u0259 bir raz\u0131la\u015fmaya s\u0259rt m\u00fcnasib\u0259t bildirib. T\u0259qdim edil\u0259n materiallarda onun bu add\u0131m\u0131 Putin\u0259 h\u0259diyy\u0259 kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirdiyi v\u0259 Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 sanksiyalar\u0131n h\u0259r hans\u0131 formada z\u0259ifl\u0259dilm\u0259sini Q\u0259rbin z\u0259ifliyi kimi xarakteriz\u0259 etdiyi qeyd olunur.
\nZelenskinin m\u00f6vqeyi Ukraynan\u0131n t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik maraqlar\u0131ndan ir\u0259li g\u0259lir. Kiyev hesab edir ki, Rusiyan\u0131n iqtisadi imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259si m\u00fcharib\u0259nin davam etdirilm\u0259sini asanla\u015fd\u0131ra v\u0259 Ukraynan\u0131n m\u00fcdafi\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tini daha da m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259bl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nBu narahatl\u0131q yaln\u0131z Ukraynan\u0131n siyasi r\u0259hb\u0259rliyin\u0259 aid deyil. Avropa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin bir hiss\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin qorunmas\u0131 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si hesab olunur. \u00c7\u00fcnki Ukraynada m\u00fcharib\u0259nin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri Avropan\u0131n m\u00fcdafi\u0259 siyas\u0259tin\u0259, enerji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyin\u0259 v\u0259 regional sabitliy\u0259 birba\u015fa t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
\nBununla bel\u0259, AB\u015e administrasiyas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131 enerji t\u0259chizat\u0131n\u0131n sabitl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si v\u0259 daxili bazarda qiym\u0259t t\u0259zyiqinin azald\u0131lmas\u0131 bax\u0131m\u0131ndan \u0259sasland\u0131rma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fa bil\u0259r. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, Va\u015finqtonla Kiyev aras\u0131nda fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6k\u00fcnd\u0259 yaln\u0131z Rusiyaya m\u00fcnasib\u0259t deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli iqtisadi ehtiyaclarla uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik prioritetl\u0259ri aras\u0131ndak\u0131 f\u0259rq dayan\u0131r.
\nLakin burada h\u0259lledici sual yen\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fmir: \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259c\u0259k iqtisadi fayda Rusiyan\u0131n m\u00fcharib\u0259 aparmaq imkanlar\u0131na m\u00fcmk\u00fcn d\u0259st\u0259k riskini kompensasiya ed\u0259c\u0259kmi?
\nT\u0259qdim edil\u0259n m\u0259lumatlara g\u00f6r\u0259, Tramp\u0131n q\u0259rar\u0131 AB\u015e daxilind\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259nqidl\u0259rl\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131b. Demokrat senatorlar bu add\u0131m\u0131n Ukraynaya, Avropa m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rin\u0259 v\u0259 AB\u015e-nin milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik maraqlar\u0131na z\u0259r\u0259r vura bil\u0259c\u0259yini bildiribl\u0259r.
\nRespublika\u00e7\u0131 konqresmen Don Bekon da Rusiyaya \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k add\u0131mlar\u0131n \u0259leyhin\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f ed\u0259r\u0259k, m\u00f6vcud sanksiyalardan Kremlin h\u0259rbi imkanlar\u0131na t\u0259zyiq g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 olunmas\u0131n\u0131n vacibliyini vur\u011fulay\u0131b.
\nBu reaksiyalar m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin AB\u015e daxilind\u0259 d\u0259 siyasi m\u00fcbahis\u0259 predmetin\u0259 \u00e7evrildiyini g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Burada iki f\u0259rqli yana\u015fma toqqu\u015fur: bir t\u0259r\u0259f enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sal\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 daxili iqtisadi t\u0259zyiql\u0259rin azald\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 prioritet hesab ed\u0259 bil\u0259r, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259f is\u0259 bel\u0259 q\u0259rarlar\u0131n AB\u015e-nin xarici siyas\u0259tin\u0259 v\u0259 m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259sirini \u00f6n\u0259 \u00e7\u0259kir.
\nAB\u015e-d\u0259 enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri siyasi bax\u0131mdan h\u0259ssas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259dir. Yanaca\u011f\u0131n bahala\u015fmas\u0131 \u0259halinin g\u00fcnd\u0259lik x\u0259rcl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r, n\u0259qliyyat v\u0259 istehsal sektorlar\u0131na t\u0259zyiq g\u00f6st\u0259rir, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin iqtisadi siyas\u0259tin\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259t\u0259 t\u0259sir edir. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 enerji bazar\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f q\u0259rarlar\u0131n daxili siyasi motivl\u0259ri d\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259 m\u00f6vzusuna \u00e7evrilir.
\nAncaq h\u0259r hans\u0131 q\u0259rar\u0131n se\u00e7ki m\u0259qs\u0259di da\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 q\u0259ti \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lav\u0259 s\u00fcbutlar t\u0259l\u0259b olunur. Daha \u0259sasl\u0131 yana\u015fma q\u0259rar\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rini \u00f6l\u00e7m\u0259kdir: yanaca\u011f\u0131n qiym\u0259ti h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n azal\u0131rm\u0131, AB\u015e istehlak\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bundan n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r faydalan\u0131r v\u0259 bunun qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Rusiyan\u0131n \u0259ld\u0259 etdiyi iqtisadi imkanlar n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131r?
\nBu suallara cavab verilm\u0259d\u0259n raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131 ya b\u00f6y\u00fck iqtisadi u\u011fur, ya da tam u\u011fursuzluq kimi t\u0259qdim etm\u0259k d\u00fczg\u00fcn olmazd\u0131.
\nQulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259qdim etdiyi t\u0259nqidi yana\u015fmada AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130srailin \u0130ranla m\u00fcharib\u0259si n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 yaranan enerji b\u00f6hran\u0131 da x\u00fcsusi yer tutur. M\u00fc\u0259llifin m\u00f6vqeyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Tramp administrasiyas\u0131 \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259 Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259ki m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259nin do\u011furdu\u011fu enerji t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fib, daha sonra is\u0259 bu probleml\u0259rin h\u0259lli \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Rusiya il\u0259 raz\u0131la\u015fmaya \u00fcz tutub.
\nBu arqumentin \u0259sas\u0131n\u0131 enerji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi il\u0259 xarici siyas\u0259t aras\u0131ndak\u0131 qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ql\u0131 \u0259laq\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 h\u0259rbi g\u0259rginliyin artmas\u0131 neft v\u0259 neft m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn\u0259, da\u015f\u0131nma mar\u015frutlar\u0131na v\u0259 bazar g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 yanaca\u011f\u0131n qiym\u0259tind\u0259 art\u0131m v\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 iqtisadi qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik yaran\u0131r.
\nLakin enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259ki d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259ri yaln\u0131z bir m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 il\u0259 izah etm\u0259k d\u0259 do\u011fru deyil. Qlobal bazarda qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 istehsal h\u0259cml\u0259ri, ehtiyatlar, t\u0259l\u0259bat, n\u0259qliyyat x\u0259rcl\u0259ri v\u0259 dig\u0259r geosiyasi riskl\u0259r d\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
\nBuna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 Rusiyadan dizel al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n enerji b\u00f6hran\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 yum\u015falda bil\u0259c\u0259yini qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fcn real h\u0259cmi v\u0259 qiym\u0259t mexanizmi, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 alternativ m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 apar\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.
\n\u018fg\u0259r raz\u0131la\u015fma AB\u015e-d\u0259 yanacaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 c\u00fczi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rirs\u0259, lakin Rusiyan\u0131n g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olursa, bu zaman onun strateji s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259liliyi ciddi m\u00fczakir\u0259 do\u011furur. \u018fksin\u0259, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u0259 bil\u0259n iqtisadi fayda \u0259ld\u0259 edilirs\u0259 bel\u0259, h\u0259min faydan\u0131n geosiyasi x\u0259rcl\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259si z\u0259ruridir.
\nBeyn\u0259lxalq siyas\u0259td\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r yaln\u0131z m\u0259n\u0259vi prinsipl\u0259rl\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t etmirl\u0259r. Milli maraqlar, iqtisadi ehtiyaclar, t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik hesablamalar\u0131 v\u0259 daxili siyasi t\u0259zyiql\u0259r q\u0259rarlar\u0131n q\u0259bulunda m\u00fch\u00fcm rol oynay\u0131r. Realist yana\u015fmaya g\u00f6r\u0259, d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 \u00f6z maraqlar\u0131n\u0131 qoruma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Lakin bu, siyasi q\u0259rarlar\u0131n m\u0259n\u0259vi v\u0259 h\u00fcquqi m\u0259suliyy\u0259td\u0259n k\u0259narda qalmas\u0131 dem\u0259k deyil.
\n\u018fksin\u0259, m\u00fcharib\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 siyasi q\u0259rarlar\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri daha b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259t da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki enerji v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 sah\u0259sind\u0259 veril\u0259n q\u0259rarlar t\u0259kc\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259rin b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 deyil, m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259nin i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na, m\u00fclki \u0259haliy\u0259 v\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliy\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nBu bax\u0131mdan, Rusiyadan dizel al\u0131nmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 raz\u0131la\u015fma \u00fc\u00e7 \u0259sas meyar \u0259sas\u0131nda qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir. Birincisi, iqtisadi s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259lilikdir: raz\u0131la\u015fma AB\u015e-d\u0259 yanacaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r azald\u0131r, t\u0259dar\u00fck t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyini n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 istehlak\u00e7\u0131lara hans\u0131 real faydan\u0131 verir? \u0130kincisi, geosiyasi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rdir: Rusiya bu raz\u0131la\u015fmadan n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 edir v\u0259 h\u0259min g\u0259lirl\u0259r Moskvan\u0131n m\u00fcharib\u0259ni davam etdirm\u0259k imkanlar\u0131na nec\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259r? \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc is\u0259 siyasi etibarl\u0131l\u0131qd\u0131r: AB\u015e-nin q\u0259rar\u0131 Ukrayna v\u0259 Avropa m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rin\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 hans\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verir, Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259zyiq siyas\u0259tinin ard\u0131c\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na nec\u0259 t\u0259sir edir?
\nBu \u00fc\u00e7 meyar birlikd\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmadan raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n mahiyy\u0259ti bar\u0259d\u0259 tam v\u0259 \u0259sasland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f n\u0259tic\u0259y\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259k \u00e7\u0259tindir.
\nQulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259nqidi yana\u015fmas\u0131 Tramp-Putin raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n iqtisadi m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011funlu\u011fu il\u0259 siyasi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri aras\u0131ndak\u0131 ziddiyy\u0259t\u0259 diqq\u0259t \u00e7\u0259kir. \u018fg\u0259r bu s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259 AB\u015e-d\u0259 yanaca\u011f\u0131n qiym\u0259tini \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 salm\u0131rsa, lakin Rusiyan\u0131n g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131na \u015f\u0259rait yarad\u0131rsa, onun Va\u015finqton \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 faydal\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u0259sasl\u0131 sual olaraq qal\u0131r.
\nBununla yana\u015f\u0131, raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n Rusiyaya n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259yini, AB\u015e bazar\u0131na hans\u0131 t\u0259siri g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259yini v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud sanksiyalar\u0131n h\u00fcquqi rejimini nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259yini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcqavil\u0259nin detallar\u0131 v\u0259 etibarl\u0131 iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r \u0259sas g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259lidir.
\nBir m\u0259qam is\u0259 ayd\u0131nd\u0131r: m\u00fcharib\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 enerji ticar\u0259ti yaln\u0131z kommersiya m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si deyil. Bel\u0259 q\u0259rarlar d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rin beyn\u0259lxalq n\u00fcfuzuna, m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259ri il\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik strategiyalar\u0131na t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
\nSiyasi \u0259xlaq\u0131n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259ti d\u0259 m\u0259hz burada \u00fcz\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r. D\u00f6vl\u0259t r\u0259hb\u0259rinin q\u0259rar\u0131 yaln\u0131z q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli iqtisadi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 deyil, onun yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli siyasi v\u0259 humanitar f\u0259sadlarla da \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u0259lidir. \u018fg\u0259r iqtisadi qazanc t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik riskl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131rsa v\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259nin dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 real ir\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015f yaratm\u0131rsa, h\u0259min q\u0259rar\u0131n m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011funlu\u011fu yenid\u0259n n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7irilm\u0259lidir.
\nBel\u0259likl\u0259, \u0259sas sual t\u0259kc\u0259 Tramp\u0131n Putinl\u0259 s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259sinin \u0259xlaqi olub-olmamas\u0131 deyil. \u018fsas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 bu raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n kim\u0259 real fayda verdiyi, hans\u0131 riskl\u0259r yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259nin dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na xidm\u0259t edib-etm\u0259diyidir.
\nSiyas\u0259td\u0259 \u0259xlaq\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n ed\u0259n yaln\u0131z b\u0259yanatlar deyil, q\u0259bul edil\u0259n q\u0259rarlar\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 h\u0259min n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 da\u015f\u0131nan m\u0259suliyy\u0259tdir.<\/p>\n

Qeyd:<\/strong> Yaz\u0131 redaksiyam\u0131z t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n professor Qulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259qdim etdiyi m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 materiallar \u0259sas\u0131nda geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilmi\u015f t\u0259hlil xarakterli publisistik m\u0259tn kimi haz\u0131rlan\u0131b.<\/p>\n

M\u0259nb\u0259: Odlar.media<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Odlar.media x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, professor Qulu M\u0259h\u0259rr\u0259mlinin t\u0259qdim etdiyi siyasi t\u0259hlild\u0259 AB\u015e Prezidenti Donald Tramp\u0131n Rusiya il\u0259 dizel yanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259dar\u00fck\u00fc m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 etdiyi raz\u0131la\u015fma beyn\u0259lxalq siyas\u0259td\u0259 \u0259xlaq, strateji maraqlar v\u0259… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":537,"featured_media":86891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,70],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-manset","category-thlil","odlar-title-color-c62828"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/537"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=86890"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86894,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86890\/revisions\/86894"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/86891"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=86890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=86890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=86890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}