{"id":85995,"date":"2026-09-24T13:27:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T09:27:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/?p=85995"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:27:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T09:27:58","slug":"fed-in-faiz-q%c9%99rari-dollar-qizil-v%c9%99-manat-ucun-hansi-riskl%c9%99r-yaranir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/?p=85995","title":{"rendered":"FED-in faiz q\u0259rar\u0131: Dollar, q\u0131z\u0131l v\u0259 manat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn hans\u0131 riskl\u0259r yaran\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Odlar.media<\/strong> x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, AB\u015e Federal Ehtiyat Sisteminin (FED) u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini art\u0131rmas\u0131 qlobal maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131nda yeni m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin ba\u015flan\u011f\u0131c\u0131 kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. Sentyabr\u0131n 16-da FED faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini 25 baza b\u0259ndi art\u0131raraq 3,75\u20134 faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fcks\u0259ldib.<br \/>\nQ\u0259rar\u0131n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259ri s\u0131ras\u0131nda inflyasiyan\u0131n h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 2 faizlik h\u0259d\u0259fd\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k olmas\u0131, iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131n v\u0259 daxili t\u0259l\u0259bin davam etm\u0259si, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri v\u0259 geosiyasi riskl\u0259rin inflyasiya t\u0259zyiqini art\u0131rmas\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rilir.<br \/>\nFED-in sentyabr proqnozlar\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, AB\u015e-da \u015f\u0259xsi istehlak x\u0259rcl\u0259ri (PCE) \u00fczr\u0259 inflyasiyan\u0131n 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 3,7 faiz, 2027-ci ild\u0259 is\u0259 2,3 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. 2026-c\u0131 ilin sonu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn federal fondlar d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sinin median proqnozunun 4,1 faiz olmas\u0131 is\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k faizl\u0259rin m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n m\u00fcdd\u0259t davam ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 i\u015far\u0259 edir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dollar v\u0259 qlobal bazarlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Faiz art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas qlobal n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biri dollarla borclanman\u0131n v\u0259 investisiyalar\u0131n maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sinin bahala\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. AB\u015e aktivl\u0259rinin g\u0259lirliliyi y\u00fcks\u0259ldikc\u0259 inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n AB\u015e bazarlar\u0131na kapital ax\u0131n\u0131 arta v\u0259 h\u0259min \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn xarici maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259 \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nBu proses dollar\u0131n dig\u0259r valyutalara nisb\u0259td\u0259 m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259 d\u0259 \u015f\u0259rait yarada bil\u0259r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 dollarla borcu olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin maliyy\u0259 y\u00fck\u00fc arta, idxal x\u0259rcl\u0259ri v\u0259 kapital c\u0259lbi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 riskl\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nQ\u0131z\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas risk n\u0259dir?<br \/>\nFED-in s\u0259rt pul siyas\u0259ti q\u0131z\u0131l bazar\u0131na da t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. G\u0259lir g\u0259tirm\u0259y\u0259n aktiv kimi q\u0131z\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn faizl\u0259rin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259si onun alternativ d\u0259y\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r. AB\u015e istiqrazlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u0259lirliliyinin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259si v\u0259 dollar\u0131n m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si q\u0131z\u0131l qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259zyiq yarada bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nBununla bel\u0259, q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131z FED-in faktiki faiz q\u0259rar\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etmir. Bazar i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k pul siyas\u0259tini \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259d\u0259n qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 daxil edirl\u0259r. FED-in g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259nd\u0259n daha s\u0259rt m\u00f6vqe n\u00fcmayi\u015f etdirm\u0259si faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259s\u0259 bel\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nDig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik, maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131ndak\u0131 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik, m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz aktivl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bin artmas\u0131 faizl\u0259rin q\u0131z\u0131la m\u0259nfi t\u0259sirini z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259 bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nBu bax\u0131mdan q\u0131z\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn nominal faizl\u0259rl\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131 real faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259ri, dollar\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si, inflyasiya g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259ri v\u0259 qlobal risk i\u015ftah\u0131 da m\u00fch\u00fcm g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rdir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FED-in q\u0259rar\u0131 manata nec\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259 bil\u0259r?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda FED-in faiz art\u0131m\u0131 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sin\u0259 birba\u015fa v\u0259 avtomatik t\u0259zyiq yaratm\u0131r. Manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sin\u0259 \u0259sas t\u0259sir ed\u0259n amill\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259nin valyuta g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, neft-qaz ixrac\u0131ndan daxilolmalar, t\u0259diyy\u0259 balans\u0131, valyuta bazar\u0131nda t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klif, h\u0259m\u00e7inin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n siyas\u0259tidir.<br \/>\nValyuta bazar\u0131nda dollar t\u0259klifinin t\u0259l\u0259bi \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259m\u0259si v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n avqustun 31-n\u0259 15,3 milyard dollara \u00e7atmas\u0131 xarici \u015foklar\u0131n t\u0259sirini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n q\u0259d\u0259r yum\u015falda bil\u0259n amill\u0259r kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir.<br \/>\nBununla bel\u0259, dollar\u0131n qlobal miqyasda uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin valyutalar\u0131 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259zyiq yarada bil\u0259r. Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n dollarla ixrac g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 bu t\u0259sirin manata \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259sini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n q\u0259d\u0259r m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nBu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 FED-in t\u0259kc\u0259 bir faiz art\u0131m\u0131 deyil, AB\u015e-da y\u00fcks\u0259k faizl\u0259rin n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r m\u00fcdd\u0259t davam ed\u0259c\u0259yi olacaq.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130nflyasiya v\u0259 neft amili<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>FED-in faiz q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131n Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyaya birba\u015fa t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259si g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n deyil. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin formala\u015fmas\u0131na dollar\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si, d\u00fcnya \u0259rzaq v\u0259 enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri, logistika x\u0259rcl\u0259ri v\u0259 daxili t\u0259l\u0259b kimi m\u00fcxt\u0259lif amill\u0259r birlikd\u0259 t\u0259sir edir.<br \/>\nDaha m\u00fch\u00fcm riskl\u0259rd\u0259n biri qlobal iqtisadi art\u0131m\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259sidir. S\u0259rt pul siyas\u0259ti d\u00fcnya t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 \u0259mt\u0259\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sala bil\u0259r. Bu, Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ikili t\u0259sir yarada bil\u0259r: b\u0259zi idxal x\u0259rcl\u0259ri azalsa da, neft\u0259 qlobal t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n v\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259 etibaril\u0259 ixrac g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131 riski yarana bil\u0259r.<br \/>\nAz\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u0259hz neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 daha \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli kanallardan biri hesab olunur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Xarici investisiyalar bahala\u015fa bil\u0259r<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>FED-in y\u00fcks\u0259k faiz siyas\u0259ti inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan bazarlarda maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259nin qiym\u0259tini d\u0259 art\u0131ra bil\u0259r. AB\u015e aktivl\u0259rinin g\u0259lirliliyi y\u00fcks\u0259ldikc\u0259 investorlar daha riskli bazarlara kapital yat\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn daha y\u00fcks\u0259k g\u0259lirlilik t\u0259l\u0259b ed\u0259 bil\u0259rl\u0259r.<br \/>\nAz\u0259rbaycan\u0131n enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131, fiskal imkanlar\u0131, qeyri-neft sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131 v\u0259 regional layih\u0259l\u0259ri is\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 investisiya q\u0259rarlar\u0131nda n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nan dig\u0259r amill\u0259r s\u0131ras\u0131nda yer al\u0131r.<br \/>\nN\u0259tic\u0259 etibaril\u0259, FED-in faiz q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131n Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas t\u0259sir kanallar\u0131 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sind\u0259n daha \u00e7ox qlobal dollar\u0131n m\u00f6vqeyi, xarici maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259nin d\u0259y\u0259ri, neft\u0259 qlobal t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 investisiya ax\u0131nlar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nQar\u015f\u0131dak\u0131 d\u00f6vrd\u0259 bazarlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 FED-in n\u00f6vb\u0259ti q\u0259rarlar\u0131ndan \u0259lav\u0259, faizl\u0259rin hans\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 v\u0259 n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r m\u00fcdd\u0259t saxlan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 olacaq. Dollar\u0131n v\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin dinamikas\u0131, h\u0259m\u00e7inin qlobal risk i\u015ftah\u0131 da Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131na t\u0259sirin miqyas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259n \u0259sas g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rd\u0259n olacaq.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Odlar.media<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Odlar.media x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, AB\u015e Federal Ehtiyat Sisteminin (FED) u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini art\u0131rmas\u0131 qlobal maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131nda yeni m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin ba\u015flan\u011f\u0131c\u0131 kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilir. Sentyabr\u0131n 16-da FED faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini 25 baza b\u0259ndi art\u0131raraq 3,75\u20134&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":537,"featured_media":85996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-maliyy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/537"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=85995"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85998,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85995\/revisions\/85998"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/85996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=85995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=85995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odlar.media\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=85995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}